The Gold Coast Property Market In 2024 - What Are The Experts Saying?
While it’s often said that everyone has an opinion about property, at the start of a new year it’s often worth getting a few opinions from those in the know. So, with median house and unit values on the Gold Coast now respectively around $1,100,000 and $721,500, here is what some experts anticipate for the Gold Coast in 2024.
It's Generally Positive News
While 2023 was all about the RBA’s rapid interest rate rises and fears of how this will negatively impact the Australian property market, according to SQM Research figures, Gold Coast property prices recorded an annual increase of around 6.5%. And the general consensus is that the Gold Coast is likely to see another positive year.
For instance, Knight Frank estimates price growth of 4% in 2024. Their Director of Residential Project Sales recently had this to say:
“As we head into [2024], weekly rents remain on an upward trajectory, vacancy remains chronically low, and established residential prices continue to surge as more people make the Gold Coast home.”
She went on:
“There is a significant number of cash buyers in the market coming from interstate who are seeking to downsize and make their low maintenance, high amenity living a reality.”
It seems to us that it is self-evident from the increasing number of cars seen on Gold Coast roads, and the additional time it takes to get from place to place, that our population is continuing to significantly increase. An increasing population leads directly to increased property demand, which we have seen plenty of over the past year or two.
As we have addressed in earlier articles, the Gold Coast property market is not only being impacted by increased population numbers. There are also the issues of (i) not enough new properties being built and (ii) there being a reduced number of properties listed for sale. Taking all these factors together, a basic equation in economics comes in to play - “Demand Exceeding Supply = Increasing Prices”.
Although Gold Coast property values are still rising, CoreLogic has said that the pace of growth has slowed over recent months. Their Asia Pacific Head of Research recently noted:
“Dwelling values were up 2.8% over the three months ending November, with the rolling quarterly growth rate easing back from a recent peak of 3.9% in May.”
He then went on to say:
“It’s likely the rate of growth will continue to ease through 2024 due to a combination of interest rates remaining higher for longer, worsening affordability pressures and the potential for advertised stock levels to rise from levels that are currently close to record lows.”
The direction towards which interest rates head, which at the time of writing stand at 4.35%, will be one of the major factors impacting what happens to the Gold Coast market in 2024. Any move towards lower rates will push up demand for property but as CoreLogic also notes:
“On the flip side, we can’t completely rule out further rate hikes. Another lift in the cash rate would present a clear downside risk for housing demand and housing market conditions.”
We believe that one of the most fundamental factors that may impact Gold Coast property prices in 2024 is the volume of property listed for sale. At the moment, listings are significantly reduced, but when the listings flood gate opens (and this is a “when” not “if” issue), it will probably lead to a price correction.
Conclusion
Based on the views of the property experts, and we generally agree with them, the Gold Coast market in 2024 can be expected to not only remain stable but also see some price gains. Those gains, however, are unlikely to be as healthy as in 2023.
But there are at least 2 major unknowns that may impact the market this year. Firstly, the RBA might decide to further increase interest rates (a negative for property) or they could keep them on hold or reduce them (both positive for property). And then there is the issue of the increasing volume of property listed for sale (a significant increase would likely result in a downward price correction).
While we cannot express a view on what will happen to interest rates, we think that in 2024 there will be an ongoing increase on the amount of property being listed for sale. A lot of owners have been sitting on the sidelines of the market for at least the past 2 years as they watch and see how stable it is and what direction it will take. We believe that from around mid-2024 many of these owners will start listing their properties for sale (we are already starting to see an uplift in owners enquiring about selling). If you are considering selling and want to avoid the above price risks, now will therefore be a very good time to do so.
If you have any questions about the matters referred to here, or you would like to have a confidential discussion about how we can help you with your sale or purchase of a property, please contact Peter Turner.